Forecast for the Week

There will be big economic reports to bookend the week ahead, starting with Monday bringing the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, which is found within the Personal Income Report. Remember, inflation is the archenemy of Bonds and home loan rates, and if this report shows inflation is on the rise, it could dampen the improvement that Bonds and home loan rates mustered up on Friday.

To end the week, Friday will bring the always important Jobs Report. Last month's report showed that there were 539,000 jobs lost in April versus expectations of a 610,000 loss, representing the smallest job loss since October. Even though the Unemployment Rate moved higher and hit a 26-year high of 8.9% in April, this is a lagging indicator, and many other data points have hinted that the worst could be over for the job market. It will be important to see if the most recent numbers continue to move in that direction.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.

 

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